A fresh analysis shows that vaccines substantially cut hospital admissions for both flu and COVID-19. The study also highlights large gaps in vaccine uptake across countries, implying there’s considerable scope to ease demand on national health systems.
Although these vaccines are proven to prevent severe illness, influenza vaccination rates in most EU/EEA countries still fall short of the World Health Organization (WHO) targets for at-risk groups, and COVID-19 vaccination rates continue to decline.
RespiCompass collaborated with multiple international modelling teams to perform this analysis, blending their models to simulate various scenarios. The resulting outcomes complement clinical vaccine effectiveness studies and provide real-world evidence for national public health agencies, vaccination programme managers, healthcare workers, and science communicators. This evidence can help strengthen future vaccination strategies.
Further collaborative modelling efforts like this can support cost-effectiveness analyses, guide resource planning, and bolster public health communication at both EU/EEA and national levels.
Key findings
From 5 August 2024 to 1 June 2025, EU/EEA vaccination programmes were projected to:
- Avert 26–41% of flu-related hospitalisations among adults aged 65 and older;
- Cut COVID-19 hospitalisations in the 65+ group by 14–20%.
These projections assume vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 60% for influenza vaccines and 75% for COVID-19 vaccines, based on the latest available evidence. The share of hospitalisations prevented varied due to differences in vaccine uptake, assumptions about virus transmission, and how immunity wanes over time.
The results underscore substantial untapped potential to lessen hospital pressure through established measures like seasonal flu vaccination and newer programmes such as COVID-19 vaccination. They also show that even modest increases in vaccine uptake can lead to meaningful reductions in hospitalisations, underscoring the value of continued vaccination advocacy and outreach.
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